Trading July 24

July 31st

• Technical analysis is used to wait for the proper price action which will give the least risk and most effective leverage. It is not a tool for prediction, a very bad tool. However, someone uses this to bet effectively on the market.
  • disclaimer: I still have not studied technical analysis enough. I may change my mind later if I study more in the future
• However, I found that technical also works, there are so many price actions and market breath that can be analyzed with technical, just using dow theory, trend line, support, and resistant zones.
  • however, this is just in a trial phase, more outcomes and more studies are needed.
• Trading with pure technical does not work for me, because there are too many false price actions for trading.
  Trading with pure fundamental uses risk ineffectively and tends to lose in eventually.
• However, the combination of fundamental and technical is the best method. First, choosing what to trade and which side to trade by fundamental analysis including analyzing news, quantitative research, etc. Then, using technical analysis to find the most effective price action for trading with tools including support and resistance zone, trend line, line chart, and candle stick pattern.

July 30th

• I think I should consider technical analysis too when trading, it will provide more proper and effective market action to the chart with less risk and more leverage.
  • also don't take action before the economic news comes out, wait for the certain announcement.
• I still have poor risk management. I should focus on learning and developing skills and experiences, not the money. I should do trading like do research, place normal risk, and wish for normal profit that correlates with my fund.
• People who trade with risk aversion tend to be more successful than trade with risk appetite.
• The line chart may be a more proper tool for technical analysis because it provides no bias of candle stick and makes you tend to see the chart in the big picture, not a tiny detail.
• Reading many news in the same category all day doesn't help because all contents in those news are quite the same.
  • So, spreading the reading of news into many categories(read 1-2 news per category) is much more effective in tracking the market.
  • Time also matters, the news published when the US market is nearly open has much more important essences of content than in the Asia market time, for me it is around 5 pm.
• If you can't use Technical analysis to predict the graph, at least, use it to find the most effective price action to trade, if you don't use any technical, you will lose a lot by trading in not proper time and get less profit because of improper leverage.

July 29th

• The best strategy is long-term trade because you will not put yourself at risk in every new trade(esp. if you aren't proficient enough to beat the market), and still be able to extend the profit further along with the trend without doing anything. The technique to follow the trend is to use a trend line. 

July 28th

• In trading, keep practicing of skills, patience in waiting for proper action, and risk management, but not on how much money you can make. Consistency will change your life, not high risk-taking. 

July 27th

• I lost quite a lot this week because I trade when there is no significant news and the chart also just stays flat in range. I think just waiting for the news that your mind clearly knows its scenario is the best. Don't just waste your money by trading insignificant news.

July 26th

• The final exam in trading is risk management. It doesn't matter how much knowledge you have, how much complexity you can think, or how clever you are. If you can't manage your emotions and consciousness which will result in how good you can control yourself and risk management, your portfolio will always be blown up.
  • Even the clever guy in the room can blow up his port.

July 25th

• I found a new technique in trading crypto, when the market is going down, search for the coin that stays at the same price(+/- not more than 0.5%), it means that those coins have strong demand and prices tend to increase soon.

July 24th special

• There are 2 types of investment: trading and investing
• I don't have much and very limited savings, so I have very little capital for investment(the money that I can lose without any effect on my life). And if I use more capital, it will invade my savings money and hugely increase the risk of my life. So the investment may not be suitable for me this time(you much have so much wealth that the money you spend investing to make a huge profit seems little to you).
  • However, there is another investing method that has less risk, called DCA. Because it will spread out the purchase, so the time of the market doesn't have much effect on the total average price. This method is much safer for low capital like me. Also, because of less risk, I can put more capital into it.
    • But, because I have limited capital(I am unemployed at this time), I will do my DCA within the limited time, just until the big economic event occurs. If it is not going as I planned, I will sell all of them with less risk.
    • Another method is to wait and buy at a good price, then hold until the planned big economic event comes out. But this method has more risk if your purchased price is not good enough. So I don't recommend this.
• Another method is trading. It requires more work and needs to follow the news to keep up with the market breath.
  • The information you have is the most important thing in trading. The more you read, gain, or research the news, information, and fundamental details, the better you can trade.
  • There are a lot of markets: Forex, Stock, Crypto. You may not need to trade all markets, just trade the market that you have a good source of information.
    • Forex: Reuters, Bloomberg, Central Bank announcement & policy
    • Crypto: theblock.co, coindesk, cointelegraph, white paper
    • Stock: News about the company from reliable sources(eg. Reuters, Bloomberg)
  • Again! Know your edge. You don't need to trade the market that you're not good at, because you will lose your profit at them.

July 24th

• I still doubt that will it be better if I trade only the things that I am quite good at esp. forex, then why do I need to trade crypto which I didn't have much knowledge about?
  • I've just poured all of my savings into the crypto. I wonder how much stupid I was!!
    • The DCA strategy that I planned is good for unsure markets like this current situation. I don't have much knowledge like the gurus which makes me not much confident like them.
    • Now, I lose some money that can be my food expenses for a month.
  • In forex, you don't need to trade the same currency all the time if you don't want to trade or don't have information about it. However, in crypto, the choice for trading is not much, the information system hasn't been as developed as information in the traditional market.
    • So Crypto is much better to trade once in a while or trade the long-term or trade when you read and gain  information enough(eg. the next trend in the crypto market)
    • However, even though you read the news every day, you still don't get a chance to trade every day. This is also true for forex, but there is less chance to trade in crypto(I still haven't read the crypto news much so this is just my guess).
  • You must know your edge and trade only the thing you are good at. In trading, success is not about how much the asset you can trade, but it is about how much profit you gain from the asset you are good at.
• The best source of information in crypto(order by importance)
  • whitepaper
  • on-chain data analysis
  • news(may not as good as Reuters, Bloomberg)
• The best source in Forex
  • central bank information, announcement of policy
  • Reuters, Bloomberg(very good source of information because they invest a lot in financial analysts and journalists)
• Investors can also do good things for the world by investing in the good things or the productive groups of people who do good things for the world.
• Holding crypto is just like holding share equities of the business you love.
• Because crypto is usually slow-moving, you must know the factors that will influence in long-term such as Fed money policies(interest rate), the upgrade of the system, etc. But the factors in the short term also have an influence but will influence specifically for the particular crypto such as news, trends in the present time, etc.
  • Reading as much as you can in what you are trading is the best strategy for survival!!

July 23rd

• There is no difference between trading crypto and forex. Crypto just needs a larger time frame(6/8 hours) to be equal to the volatility of Forex(1 hour).
  • The next question is Why trade crypto???????????
  • Trade forex with more risk per trade is no different from crypto, also there are more opportunities in the things you are good at.
• The less you stay watching the chart, the more productive you get in your life.
• Investors can also do good things for the world by investing in the good things or the productive groups of people who do good things for the world.

July 22nd

• I found that the limit order that I placed on the major zone works!! But with my review, it only works with Bitcoin.
  • It really works! I just place the limit order at the major zone(I learned this technique from the 'Naked Forex' book)
    • First, identify the Major zones in the line chart and 1-day timeframe. Then, go to the 4h timeframe to finely adjust the zone.
    • However, the zone may not be always correct. They are just used to plan the trading strategy.
• Trading such a low volatility like bitcoin has to increase the position size which increases risk per trade to 3% and decreases frequency in trading, just swing or run trend.
• From the studies, frequency trade is not a good strategy, because the market is unpredictable(even using technical analysis) and randomly moves in the very short term, and also there are a lot of fees and commissions that decrease profit.
  • just trade and hold is the best strategy.
• Trading crypto is no different from forex in trade principles, it has its fundamentals that have to concern such as FED interest rate, FUD, etc. However, there are some differences in its characteristics which are the following
  • BTC price moves slower with a wider range(more volatile) than forex. Forex prices move every day, but BTC price takes around 1 week to bounce in a wide range before moving to another, which results in
    • the 1-hour chart time frame of BTC is equal to the 10-minute chart of Forex
    • conversely, the 1-hour chart time frame of forex being equal to the 7-hour time frame of BTC.
    • To prevent losing in the BTC chart, it is preferable to trade using the 6-8 hour time frame.
  • In conclusion, Trading crypto is no different from forex, but takes a longer time before the price moves out of range(1 week compared to 1 day in forex) and is usually traded with a larger position size.

July 21st

• there are researches that technical analysis is not so good as just buy and hold because the market is random.
  • Moreover, the less you trade, the more profit you can get, because of less fee and loss from the market's random walk.
  • I found that there is no use trading short term, I tried short-term trading on crypto but couldn't get any profit. 
    The market in the short term is so hard to predict(use too much effort). Also, with high risk, fee, and low reward, short-term day trade is not effective at all.
  • The best solution is just swing or long-term trade with a larger position size(risk 3-6% per trade)

July 19th

• Sometimes, no trading is also a proper way. Always trading with good and careful analysis is the best way.
• Trading with overrisk is permitted only in case of the excess of profit target in that month.
• Trade after the news is much more effective because economic data is always released with price spikes and high volatility which eventually usually turns back to the previous level from profit taking of short-term traders, thus it is no use trading for swing traders. In contrast, after the news, the price usually slowly and continuously moves again to the same side as the previous price spike caused by the news.

July 18th

• Technical analysis is not a bad thing, I use it a lot in making trading decisions i.e. major snr zone, candle stick engulfing, price pattern(big shadow, kangaroo tail, last kiss).
• However, to follow the market breath, select a chart for trade, determine which side to trade between bullish and bearish, and what to do in the short and long term, I must use fundamental analysis which is about researching and analyzing the information of things to trade esp. economic news, its own fundamental information from primary sources, and etc.

July 17th

• Today, I tried to hold my Crypto positions, because I know that this week the economic news releases of the US are tend to bad because of the hawkish monetary policy, which will become good for Crypto.
  • Trying to hold positions means that the prices will have to sail on high-volatility markets with large position sizes open. I would have to meet some unrealized loss inevitably.
  • After, I've tried all of the stop loss of positions opened were triggered!!! it's probably because the principle of short-term trade is different from long-term. The following are the suggestions
    • The short-term trade with a large position size is less risky than long-term trade with the same size. Because long-term trades usually become a trade loss more frequently than taking profit out in the short-term trade.
    • This causes the difference in determining the stop-loss price, in which long-term trade is wider, but short-term trade is narrower.
    • These previous two reasons also make the difference in the position size. For long-term trade, it can't use much large position size because of more frequent loss and a wide stop-loss range. In contrast, the short-term trade is able to use a larger position size because of the narrow stop-loss range and faster take profiting which makes it less frequent in loss.
• I've traded for 3 days and I found that I haven't gotten any profit!!!, those days I opened many crypto positions and it is so messy that I can't take any profit!!!
  • I think the best way is to simply trade only one position when have a clue and close it when feel satisfied.

July 16th

• Maybe, I'm not suitable for short-term trading because I can't withstand drawdown. Taking profit along the way when feeling a Utopia is the more suitable way for me. Even leaving large profiting positions overnight makes me can't sleep well.
  • Also, I used too much risk, if the risk is not too much, I still may be able to sleep well.
• The Technique for long-term trading is trading with risks that you can forget them. If you can't forget the trade you placed even when go to sleep, maybe you use too much risk or you shouldn't be a long-term trader.

July 15th

• When you buy a large position, have you ever prepared your mind for when it becomes lost? This problem can be prevented easily by setting the % maximum drawdown per day.
• Sometimes people may think the traders can solve the market. In reality, this is not completely true, traders have to gather and analyze information until they have ideas about the market and trade with those ideas. If they don't have an idea, at that time, which may be because of insufficient information, they will not trade.

July 14th

• Now, I trade more aggressively in this short term(before the next PCE release) because the market has started to price in Fed rate cut, which will certainly drive the price up.
  • Trading shouldn't be hurried. Aggressive trading must come with a comprehensive and careful analysis. Especially, if you still have no idea or are in doubt even though you've tried a lot to analyze the information, you shouldn't trade.
  • Be calm down and always ask yourself before trading "Do you have the most present information of it? Have you analyzed the information thoroughly? Are you still in doubt? How certain it is?"
• There are so many great textbooks other than The Art of Currency Trading, which changed my life. However, for the most important thing in the investment, you always have to know the fundamental or intrinsic factors of the things you invest. Those extrinsic factors(eg. economic, news, etc) are also important but they will have effects only when they resonate with those intrinsic factors. So, again the fundamentals of the thing you trade is the most important!!
• For those extrinsic factors, it is no benefit to just follow them which will surely make you a herder, but analyzing them and looking further at what will occur next will produce the ideas and profit for trading for you.
• Today, I argue with my mon, it might be good that I shouldn't trade!!
  • I also prefer not to keep my position open for a long time, when I see a utopia in my profit, I should take it out.
• The thing that helped me so much in trading is reading Reuters. I know what the investors are interested in and what are the factors influencing the economy from this resource.

July, 13th

• I think at present the risk assets(eg bitcoin, stock) are still in an accumulation phase because the enormous funds could flow in only when the Fed of the US exactly announces an interest rate cut.
  • If the price goes up at this time, it probably comes from investor and trader prices in. It would not be so a big price movement as after the rate cut.
  • If I were the hedge fund, I surely wouldn't price in because it is too much risk to move such enormous funds without knowing the certain future. Also, I would surely know that the market wouldn't move without these enormous funds, so it doesn't matter to wait for a certain announcement because I was the only one who could create a big move in the price.
• Trading with fundamentals may be the correct way to trade because everything in the chart relies on real-world events and price actions on a chart are only the historical record of them. Technical analysis by chart reading will always have less influence on price than analyzing real-world fundamentals.

July, 12th

• Someone has an opinion that there are bubbles in the AI stock market. I think it is possible but the time this bubble will break is when the condition that AI is not useful in real life occurs or it causes too much energy consumption and causes energy shortage.

July, 11th

• I think if I want to be successful in which market investment, I should follow the news of that market as much as possible.
  • The more you read the news and research the information, the more opportunities in the investment market.

July, 8th

• In the principle of good investment, you must have some cash left
• For Cryptocurrency investment, I still have time to collect information.
  • The information that I have to collect are following
    • outside narrative
      • News and Trends in the Present
    • inside narrative
      • White paper of coin, Technology, News about coin
• It seems like the technical analysis textbook that I read is also useful; even though, I haven't made money with that knowledge, I still can use that technical knowledge to analyze the chart and make my trade much more better.
  • I think I need to do back-testing in forex trading, it is the main work of the technical traders. 

July, 5th

• Maybe, I would come back in the reading Reuters way. However, for trading, I will trade only those I have the narrative of them.
  • For example, even I've read only one morning-brief news from Reuters. The news provided me the details about how the impact will be if the unemployment rate has some kind of number. Then, the economic number was announced, and its number is that kind. So I have some clues to trade BTC.
  • I would read news on Reuters every day, at least 2 news.
• Also, I would trade only things that I have the data currently in my brain, not in my notes. Because, if the data is in my brain, it means that those data have passed my thoughts and were processed as ideas. In contrast, if data is on my notes or paper, it means that the data may not pass my thought processes or not be up-to-date, meaning that the other investors will also not focus on that data, which makes it less important for trade.

July, 3rd

• ตอนนี้เรากำลังเทรดแบบ Swing trade(เทรดระยะกลาง ถือข้ามสัปดาห์) ด้วยการ hand free trade(เข้าแล้วให้ตลาดกำหนดว่าจะ win/loss ไม่ยุ่งอีก) ใช้ all catalysts for all markets
  • max drawdown per week อยู่ที่ 5%
  • max drawdown per day อยู่ที่ 1% 
  • ใช้กลยุทธ์ แบ่งเป็นไม้เล็กๆ จำนวนมาก เพื่อเพิ่มโอกาสกำไร ตามหลักความน่าจะเป็น คือ ปกติ จะเทรดไม้ละ 1% แต่เราจะแบ่งเป็นไม้ละ 0.3% วันละ 3 ไม้ เพื่อเพิ่มโอกาสความน่าจะเป็นในการชนะ
• ในขั้นต้นคือ อยากรู้ win rate ของ กลยุทธ์จากตำรา Naked forex ก่อน
• เอาจริงๆ อยากจะไปอ่านข่าว reuters แล้วล่ะ
• เคยมีคำพูดว่า ถ้าเราจะรวย เราต้องมีความสามารถที่เหมาะสมด้วย ไม่มีอะไรฟรี
  • ตอนนี้รู้สึกว่าเรามีความสามารถมากพอหรือยังนะ? หลังจากที่ได้อ่านตำรา Technical analysis?

July, 2nd

• Now, I am trading the Demo account
• Trying to trade with daily draw down 1%
  • Seperating the trade to be small but as many as possible.
    • increase chance of wining
• โดยส่วนตัวรู้สึกว่า Technical analysis ที่อ่านมาจาก Naked forex เป็นเหมือนสูตรลัด หรือ โพยคำตอบในการทำข้อสอบแห่งการเทรด ซึ่งเป็นการไม่สนใจเบื้องหลัง ว่าการเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาเกิดจากปัจจัยอะไร แต่อาศัยการวิเคราะห์พฤติกรรมราคา หรือ พฤติกรรมแท่งเทียน เพื่อบอกแนวโน้มการเปลี่ยนแปลงราคา ซึ่งตำราบอกว่าอาจจะมีวันที่ไม่สามารถใช้ได้เหมือนกัน หากว่าระบบเปลี่ยนไป(เช่น มี AI มาเทรด ทำให้พฤติกรรมราคาไม่เหมือนเดิม)
  • ถ้าสูตรลัดยังคงใช้ได้ก็ดี เพราะทำให้ชีวิตง่ายขึ้น จากการที่ไม่ต้องเหนื่อยไปอ่านตามข่าวมากมายตลอดเวลา
  • แต่ถ้าเริ่มใช้ไม่ได้ขึ้นมา? จะทำอย่างไร? แต่ตำราเขียนมา 10 ปีแล้วนะ ยังใช้ได้อยู่เลย!!!